In August, we attempted to organize some basic explainers in the Michigan Aurora Chasers Facebook Group by breaking the tutorial into sections. Our group founder worked on this before we decided to launch a website.
The website is now a much better way to find and organize information. So, please visit MichiganAuroraChasers.com if you’re not already on the website, and take a look around!
Still, these eight MI Aurora Explainers can help you get started, if you’re a novice Aurora Chaser who wants to better understand the game.
Thank you to Jen Boss Mainka for the use of her beautiful photography!
Contents:
- #1. TAKE INITIATIVE TO FIND OUR GUIDES & HELPFUL LINKS
- #2. HOW OFTEN CAN YOU SEE AURORA IN MICHIGAN?
- #3. THE NATURE OF AURORA FORECASTING
- #4. UNDERSTANDING WARNINGS, WATCHES AND ALERTS
- #5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT KP & THE K-INDEX
- #6. SIGNS OF VISIBLE AURORA FOR BEGINNERS
- #7. THE DIFFERENCE FOR EXPERIENCED CHASERS & PHOTOGRAPHERS
- #8. UNDERSTANDING THE 3-DAY FORECASTS FROM THE SWPC
MI Aurora Explainers
#1. TAKE INITIATIVE TO FIND OUR GUIDES & HELPFUL LINKS:
As a community, the Michigan Aurora Chasers are always trying to improve our group, and add opportunities for Aurora Chasers to learn and grow in their talents, knowledge, and skills.
We’re changing the way we write the New Aurora Forecast Thread, which always appears at the top of the Facebook Group under the Featured section. The New Aurora Forecast Thread is the best place to read, get updated on, and comment with new details on the Aurora forecast!
Find out if it is go time, watch our video tutorials, get viewing locations, download the free beginner’s guide by Admin Patrick Grubba, shop our online store, or thank an admin or group expert.
Countless resources are available to you! But the Facebook platform has put the burden on the user to find them. Website URLs are now being flagged by Meta and Facebook, so we encourage you to take initiative and find our resources on your own. You’ll be glad you did!
Ways to Find Our Guides Inside the Facebook Group:
- Open the Featured section every time you visit the group.
- Visit the Guides tab.
- Search the internet for “MI Aurora Resources.”
- View our Files tab.
- Open the Albums under Media to find our Visual Guides.
- Visit MI Aurora Shortcuts or visit our link tree for MiAuroraChasers.
- Use the Search button
- Still can’t find what you need? Comment with your question on “The Answers Thread!” We post new threads with this exact title on a regular basis, so that you can get the eyes of Admins or Group Experts on your inquiry.
To find more helpful links, you can also find #MiAuroraResources in many places online.
#2. HOW OFTEN CAN YOU SEE AURORA IN MICHIGAN?
Colorful Aurora that is visible to the human eye without the aide of a camera is considered to be rare in Michigan. Yet, Aurora Chasing is a fascinating pursuit with many twists and turns!
There’s an exception to every rule.
Our New Aurora Forecast Thread, which always contains the latest forecast at the top of the Facebook Group, caters to beginners. Not only does it cater to novice chasers, but also those who are in search of a stunning eyesight-visible Aurora display that you can easily see rising high above the northern horizon.
To view our Aurora forecasts, please join the Michigan Aurora Chasers group on Facebook. Or help us achieve 10,000 Followers so we can qualify to launch an alerts Channel on Instagram!
Just because we say chances are low for Aurora on any given night, that does not mean there’s no Aurora! An ever-present solar wind outside of Earth’s magnetic field creates a near-constant hum of subtle Aurora activity. That’s why people in the polar regions see this “rare” natural phenomenon so often!
A masterful photographer with sophisticated camera gear or a modern phone camera may be able to catch Aurora in Michigan on any night when the skies are clear. Even if the displays are insanely brief!
These sightings are beautiful, always appreciated, and yet they are likely not visible to the eye — with the exception of white or silver wisps or pillars in the distance. We’d like to thank those who take the time to specify “camera-only” or “naked eye visible” in their Live Sightings!
There’s a huge difference!
#3. ABOUT AURORA CHASING AND THE NATURE OF FORECASTING:
Why is there so much uncertainty in the Aurora forecast? Space weather forecasting (which leads to Aurora) is an emerging science. Most forecasts in this field come with a margin of error of at least +/- 7 hours, often more!
On top of that, much of what the industry is trying to predict is actually geomagnetic activity and the impact of solar activity on Earth’s systems and environment — not dancing lights in the sky.
Many conditions need to align to create visible Aurora, including conditions on Earth and conditions in Space. We can only know what may come our way up to 3 days in advance, and it only works out IF the conditions align.
To learn all the conditions that need to align, you’ll want to study up and read our Guides or other resources. You can also browse our Featured section for the newest and best resources we have to offer.
Apps everywhere, with few exceptions, use the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) 3-day Forecast and 27-day Outlook to populate the “Aurora Forecast” on your phone. Websites too. However, as you will come to learn, these forecasts have many pitfalls, as do Kp alerts. We will always try to make an effort to answer your questions and educate you about what you’re seeing on your apps, but other methods will make you a much more successful Aurora Chaser.
More and more, the world is looking to Aurora groups like ours, to determine what is actually happening when it comes to Aurora activity — and what is actually possible.
If you’re new, one of three things could happen. Decide what level you want to chase Aurora at:
- You could simply watch for Live Sightings, to know with 100% certainty when Aurora appears. In this case, please be patient. Hold your questions so that they don’t clog the group: “Anyone seeing anything?” The answers will appear in photos, if you browse and wait!
- You could dig in to learn the game of Aurora Chasing, and become successful on your own or as a team, or
- In rare cases, you could be lucky enough to stand in the right place at the right time in the middle of the night — and catch Aurora without even trying! Lucky!!!
Did you know the colors of the Aurora are not always visible to the eye? It’s true, especially at our latitudes. We can’t predict what colors will actually be visible, because every Aurora is different. Every individual will also have a different experience based on their own unique eye health and night vision.
One thing is for sure: The darker your skies are and the farther north you go, the more you will increase your chances of spotting something spectacular. Hot tip! Dark skies are often way more important than the location.
Have you ever been blinded in the dark and wondering how to stop it? Be part of the solution! Take a moment to read up on Night Sky Etiquette, provided on our MI Aurora Shortcuts, our link tree, in our Guides, and in #MiAuroraResources, which is searchable on the web.
#4. UNDERSTANDING WARNINGS, WATCHES AND ALERTS:
You may see us post Watches, Warnings and Alerts, alongside other updates on Aurora activity and our member-generated Live Sightings. Many of these alerts are distributed by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, and even though the target audience is NOT Aurora Chasers, these notifications can indicate when real-time K values will reach “storm levels,” creating the geomagnetic storms that usually produce strong Aurora.
The Warnings, Watches and Alerts that correspond to space weather are not so different from those that warn us of Earth weather, such as tornadoes or hurricanes. For a moment, let’s compare the Warnings, Watches and Alerts for geomagnetic storms to Tornado Warnings, because the comparison makes it easy to understand.
A Watch is issued when the conditions are present that could create G-Storms (which produce Aurora), meaning activity is somewhat likely but not confirmed. Watches are issued several days in advance, so we have no way of knowing if conditions will align on the night of the chase.
A Warning is issued when strong G-Storms have been detected approaching Earth’s atmosphere, making the Bz component the major remaining factor that could instantly change conditions. Warnings typically mean G-Storms (that produce strong Aurora) are inevitable and they could occur within the hour.
An Alert is issued when strong geomagnetic activity has actually been detected, even if we can’t see any Aurora due to daylight or due to cloudy weather or other obstacles. Alerts of K5 (G1 Storm) or stronger are very strong indicators that Aurora will appear in the mid-latitudes that night, though the conditions can subside very quickly.
You will also see our lead team posting alerts from other types of resources, such as SpaceWeatherLive, the Glendale App-UK, and customizable notifications. We’ll do our best to explain the alerts, as the need arises!
Our team makes an effort to post Warnings, Watches and active conditions in the group, as soon as we know. It’s also important to check your local weather forecast for clear skies!
#5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT KP & THE K-INDEX:
When you’re trying to catch the Northern Lights for the first time, it’s natural to wonder when you can see them and where. The answer to these questions, it turns out, is not so easy. Even our best indicators in Aurora forecasting come with strengths and weaknesses.
In simple terms, the K-index is a measure of the geomagnetic activity that produces Aurora on a scale of 0 to 9, with K9 being the strongest. When given as Kp, this denotes a “planetary” average of the K value over a span of three hours as measured at magnetometer stations around the world.
The K/Kp values also correspond to geomagnetic storm conditions. When the K-index reaches a value of 5, for example, it is synonymous with a G1 Storm, or a minor geomagnetic storm.
Be careful how you use the K-index. While some Aurora Chasers swear by it, advanced Aurora Chasers know that this indicator can be extremely misleading, when given as an average. Even real-time K values work best when compared with other types of information to gauge the possibility of Northern Lights. In fact, many Aurora groups and amateur forecasters avoid using the K-index altogether, because they don’t view the predicted Kp as a solid indication that Northern Lights will appear.
So, what is a solid indicator? Good question!
The game of space weather forecasting is changing at a rapid pace, and there are many methods of trying to predict Aurora activity. The Michigan Aurora Chasers welcomes methods from a wide variety of backgrounds.
We also maintain that:
“All forecasts represent an approximation of what is expected based on the data available at the time. No forecasts are beyond challenge, and there is always margin for error.“
If you want to know the answer, you’ll have to dive in and learn with us — as we share content, tools, and Guides to help you find out!
#6. SIGNS OF VISIBLE AURORA FOR BEGINNERS:
If you want to go by the Kp, which is the only measure we have of how far south the Northern Lights may extend by latitude, then we have an evergreen map that shows you how the K-Index usually stacks up for visible Aurora in Michigan.
Keep in mind, though, that Kp is a planetary average of the last three hours of activity measured at 13 stations around the world. So, it will NOT be a reliable tool in real time.
If you learn how to find them, you can also use real-time alerts of K, or you can visit individual magnetometer stations around the world to find the K value that is registering for that region at any given time. These magnetometer stations are not always easy to find!
That said, based on the maps for the K-Index, we often need at least a K4 to catch visible Aurora in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
Geomagnetic storms, known as “storm levels,” bring a stronger chance of Aurora to the region because these stronger values of geomagnetic activity usually produce Aurora. We achieve “storm levels” when the K-index reaches K5/Kp5 or higher, which is equivalent to a G1 Storm. We often need a K5 or stronger to reliably catch visible Aurora in northern lower Michigan, or a G1 Storm. We typically need a K6 (G2 Storm) or stronger to catch visible Aurora in the entire state, as far south as the Michigan border and beyond.
You can find many better indicators of Aurora activity out there, if you take the time to read our Guides, learn from others, browse and study books and websites in the field, and so on.
One indicator we often use in this group is the experimental Ovation Model, which gives a projection of eyesight visible Aurora activity based on a combination of factors. Many of the models in this field are still experimental.
The Ovation Model has worked well during strong Aurora conditions, as long as the Bz component of the solar wind is cooperative and the it does not malfunction. The Ovation Model shows Aurora/geomagnetic strength as measured in Gigawatts on the Hemispheric Power Index, or HPI.
At about 30gw, our most experienced Aurora Chasers and photographers have a chance, including those in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. At about 60gw, stronger conditions are projected and Aurora might be visible in areas of northern Michigan. At about 90gw and stronger, we enter stronger storm level conditions, and the Aurora will be possible across much of the state, as long as the conditions align.
The Ovation Model can be seen on many websites and apps, and in many variations including a video version. We suggest everyone AVOID the dark red and pixelated Aurora Forecast version, found on the SWPC Aurora Dashboard; it is very misleading.
When the now-casting tool called the Ovation Model begins to turn yellow, orange or red, that indicates a high probability of Aurora for every area lit up on the Ovation Model map. You can find a link to the Ovation Model in #MiAuroraResources, which is searchable anywhere on the web.
Once you become more advanced, we assume you are tapping the many other tools and more perfect analysis of space weather available to you! Or at the very least, you have found a method that works for you. We hope you are catching the Aurora often, with the help of our Live Sightings.
#7. THE DIFFERENCE FOR EXPERIENCED CHASERS & PHOTOGRAPHERS:
Are you using a modern DSLR camera or phone camera to aide you on the Aurora Chase? You may catch Aurora before anyone else, especially if your skills in spotting the Aurora and photographing it are more advanced. You may catch the Northern Lights at strengths where the data and forecasters (including our team) said Aurora were not possible.
Technology is changing the game. With newer sophisticated lenses, sensitive camera sensors, and the ability to image the night sky at higher resolutions, almost anything is possible. This is why we refer to camera-only sightings, why they are so common in the region, and why we encourage people to specify what they are seeing in their Live Sightings.
We especially appreciate it when advanced Aurora photographers note that the Northern Lights are becoming visible to the naked eye, eyesight visible, or vividly colorful in the mid-latitudes.
Understand what it means when you catch camera-only Aurora. If you can only see the Aurora through your camera lens or in-camera, you may be catching it at extremely high altitudes from very far distances. It’s really cool because the camera is allowing you to see what is already there, despite the limitations of human night vision! This does not necessarily mean others will be able to catch the Aurora, though, especially if you caught a single view that lasted only a brief five minutes. Hey, we can always hope!
Beginners, be mindful of this as you report Live Sightings and read other posts that demonstrate the Aurora are present, then evaluate whether you will actually be able to “see” the Aurora, based on the reports. Northern Lights are not always visible to the eye, especially in the mid-latitudes, and the vivid colors you see in pop culture can be hard to come by.
Good news! If you point a camera low on the northern horizon, and take a “test shot,” the camera will often reveal Aurora in the sky, before you can see anything with the human eye. This is valuable, not only because it will give you a successful sighting, but also because it is often an early sign that a stronger display is about to begin!
#8. UNDERSTANDING THE 3-DAY FORECASTS FROM THE SWPC:
Aurora falls into an area of science called Space Weather. When it comes to predicting Aurora, the earliest we can know of any space weather that may be directed toward the Earth is about 3 days in advance. Anything beyond that, even if you find it on an app or website such as the 27-day Outlook, is largely based on historical data.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issues a 3-day forecast for the geomagnetic activity that can lead to Aurora under the right conditions, particularly when we achieve “storm levels,” such as a G1 Storm or G2 Storm, etc.
The forecasts are not intended for Aurora Chasers, but instead they are designed to protect our power grids and infrastructure by warning of the highest possible geomagnetic activity — which can cause issues ranging from satellite-based GPS malfunctions to disruptions in radio communication and even power grid collapse. Don’t worry! Geomagnetic storms of this magnitude are relatively rare.
HOW TO READ THE 3-DAY FORECAST:
The SWPC’s 3-day forecast gives predictions for Kp, a “planetary” average of activity on a scale of 0-9, with 9 being the strongest. The Kp is measured over 3-hour increments of time, and it is always issued in Universal Time Coordinated (UTC/UT). The average comes from the K-index, which represents the geomagnetic strength that is strongly correlated with Aurora. On this index, it is denoted as either K, when it refers to real-time conditions in one specific region, or Kp, when it refers to a planetary average over three hours.
To read the 3-day forecast, look at the 3-hour increment representing local sunset on any given day, find the predicted Kp for that night, and look at the Kp predictions that follow for the hours moving into midnight and before dawn. If you see a Kp strong enough for your latitude, especially at G-Storm levels (Geomagnetic Storms), you may have a chance to see Northern Lights near your home.
Updated August 2024.
Michigan Aurora Chasers 
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